Climate change and shifting habitats: predicting the future distribution of the Balkan pond turtle (Mauremys rivulata)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22848646.Keywords:
Balkan pond turtle, climate change, climate-driven range shifts, freshwater turtlesAbstract
Although freshwater turtles such as the Balkan pond turtle (Mauremys rivulata) are sensitive to environmental changes, the impacts of climate change on their range remain a critical concern for conservation planning. This study employed an ensemble modeling approach via the biomod2 package to forecast the potential distribution of M. rivulata by 2070 under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). We utilized the MRI-CGCM3 model, which provides a robust framework for regional circulation patterns and ensures methodological consistency for comparative analysis with its sister species, M. caspica. Currently, approximately 6.71% (642,456 km2) of the study area is climatically suitable for the Balkan pond turtle. Our findings identify the precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16) as the most significant environmental driver, followed by annual mean temperature. These results underscore the vulnerability of Balkan pond turtles to climate-driven habitat reorganization and provide essential spatial data for developing transboundary conservation and management strategies in the Western Palearctic.
References
Allouche, O., Tsoar, A., & Kadmon, R. (2006). Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: Prevalence, kappa, and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 1223–1232. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x
Archis, J. N., Akcali, C., Stuart, B. L., Kikuchi, D., & Chunco, A. J. (2018). Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius). PeerJ, 6, e4647. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4647
Ashrafzadeh, M. R., Naghipour, A. A., Haidarian, M., & Khorozyan, I. (2019). Modeling the response of an endangered flagship predator to climate change in Iran. Mammal Research, 64, 39–51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13364-018-0385-5
Ashrafzadeh, M. R., Shojaei, Z., Shaloei, F., Naghipour, A. A., & Heidarian, M. (2022). Modeling current and future potential distributions of Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica) under climate change scenarios. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology, 10(4), 39–51.
Ashrafzadeh, M. R., Moradi, M., Khosravi, R., Naghipour, A. A., & Chamberlain, D. (2024). Impacts of climate change on a high elevation specialist bird are ameliorated by terrain complexity. Global Ecology and Conservation, 56, e03281.
Barbet‐Massin, M., Jiguet, F., Albert, C. H., & Thuiller, W. (2012). Selecting pseudo‐absences for species distribution models: How, where, and how many? Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3(2), 327–338. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00172.x
Bardeh, F. G., Ashrafzadeh, M. R., Segherloo, I. H., & Rahimi, R. (2021). Modelling habitat suitability and connectivity of the Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica) in Central Zagros, Iran. Journal of Wildlife and Biodiversity, 5(2), 1-14.
Barrett, D. M., Singh, N., Liu, X., Jiang, S., June, C. H., Grupp, S. A., & Zhao, Y. (2014). Relation of clinical culture method to T-cell memory status and efficacy in xenograft models of adoptive immunotherapy. Cytotherapy, 16, 619–630. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcyt.2014.01.005
Barth, D., Bernhard, D., Fritzsch, G., & Fritz, U. (2004). The freshwater turtle genus Mauremys (Testudines, Geoemydidae)—A textbook example of an east–west disjunction or a taxonomic misconcept? Zoologica Scripta, 33, 213–221. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0300-3256.2004.00161.x
Benito Garzón, M., Sánchez de Dios, R., & Sainz Ollero, H. (2008). Effects of climate change on the distribution of Iberian tree species. Applied Vegetation Science, 11, 169–178. https://doi.org/10.3170/2008-7-18410
Chelazzi, G., Naziridis, T., Benvenuti, S., Ugolini, A., & Crivelli, A. (2007). Use of river‐wetland habitats in a declining population of the terrapin (Mauremys rivulata) along the Strymon River, northern Greece. Journal of Zoology, 271, 154–161. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7998.2006.00235.x
Cheng, L., Lek, S., Lek-Ang, S., & Li, Z. (2012). Predicting fish assemblages and diversity in shallow lakes in the Yangtze River basin. Limnologica, 42, 127–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.limno.2011.11.003
Croxall, J. P., Silk, J. R., Phillips, R. A., Afanasyev, V., & Briggs, D. R. (2005). Global circumnavigations: Tracking year-round ranges of nonbreeding albatrosses. Science, 307, 249–250. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1106042
Doswald, N., Willis, S. G., Collingham, Y. C., Pain, D. J., Green, R. E., & Huntley, B. (2009). Potential impacts of climatic change on the breeding and non‐breeding ranges and migration distance of European Sylvia warblers. Journal of Biogeography, 36, 1194–1208. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.02092.x
Duan, R.-Y., Kong, X.-Q., Huang, M.-Y., Varela, S., & Ji, X. (2016). The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation, and turnover in China. PeerJ, 4, e2185. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.2185
Early, R., & Sax, D. F. (2014). Climatic niche shifts between species' native and naturalized ranges raise concern for ecological forecasts during invasions and climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23(12), 1356–1365. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12208
Fish, M. R., Cote, I. M., Gill, J. A., Jones, A. P., Renshoff, S., & Watkinson, A. R. (2005). Predicting the impact of sea-level rise on Caribbean sea turtle nesting habitat. Conservation Biology, 19, 482–491. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00134.x
Fritz, U., & Wischuf, T. (1997). Zur systematik westasiatisch-südosteropäischer Bachschilkröten (Gattung Mauremys) (Reptilia: Testudines: Bataguridae). Zoologische Abhandlungen, Staatliches Museum für Tierkunde Dresden, 49, 223–260.
Gibbons, J. W., & Lovich, J. E. (2019). Where has turtle ecology been, and where is it going? Herpetologica, 75(1), 4–20. https://doi.org/10.1655/0018-0831-75.1.4
Guisan, A., Tingley, R., Baumgartner, J. B., Naujokaitis‐Lewis, I., Sutcliffe, P. R., Tulloch, A. I., … Mantyka-Pringle, C. (2013). Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecology Letters, 16, 1424–1435. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12189
Hamann, A., & Wang, T. (2006). Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia. Ecology, 87, 2773–2786. https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[2773:PEOCCA]2.0.CO;2
Hamernick, M. G. (2001). Home ranges and habitat selection of Blanding’s turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) at the Weaver Dunes. Nongame Wildlife Program Final Report. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/eco/nongame/projects/research_reports/abstracts/reptiles/hamernick20.html
Iannella, M., Cerasoli, F., D’Alessandro, P., Console, G., & Biondi, M. (2018). Coupling GIS spatial analysis and ensemble niche modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle (Emys trinacris), an endangered species from the Mediterranean. PeerJ, 6, e4969. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4969
Kafash, A., Ashrafi, S., Ohler, A., Yousefi, M., Malakoutikhah, S., Koehler, G., & Schmidt, B. R. (2018). Climate change produces winners and losers: Differential responses of amphibians in mountain forests of the Near East. Global Ecology and Conservation, 16, e00471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2018.e00471
Lin, C.-T., & Chiu, C.-A. (2019). The relic Trochodendron aralioides Siebold & Zucc. (Trochodendraceae) in Taiwan: Ensemble distribution modeling and climate change impacts. Forests, 10, 7. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10010007
Lötter, D., & le Maitre, D. (2014). Modelling the distribution of Aspalathus linearis (Rooibos tea): Implications of climate change for livelihoods dependent on both cultivation and harvesting from the wild. Ecology and Evolution, 4, 1209–1221. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1012
Mantziou, G. (2000). Ecology, distribution and differentiation of Mauremys caspica (Testudines: Bataguridae) in Crete (Master’s thesis). University of Crete.
Mantziou, G. (2006). Phylogeography and population genetics of Mauremys rivulata (Chelonia: Geoemydidae) (Doctoral dissertation).
Marmion, M., Parviainen, M., Luoto, M., Heikkinen, R. K., & Thuiller, W. (2009). Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 59–69. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00552.x
Mazaris, A. D., Kallimanis, A. S., Tzanopoulos, J., Sgardelis, S. P., & Pantis, J. D. (2009). Sea surface temperature variations in core foraging grounds drive nesting trends and phenology of loggerhead turtles in the Mediterranean Sea. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 379, 23–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2009.04.005
Millar, C. S., & Blouin-Demers, G. (2012). Habitat suitability modelling for species at risk is sensitive to algorithm and scale: A case study of Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) in Ontario, Canada. Journal for Nature Conservation, 20, 18–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2011.06.001
Pounds, J., Fogden, M., & Masters, K. (2005). Responses of natural communities to climate change in a highland tropical forest. In Lovejoy, T., & Hannah, L. (Eds.), Climate change and biodiversity (pp. 70–74). Yale University Press.
R Development Core Team. (2014). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.R-project.org/
Senay, S. D., Worner, S. P., & Ikeda, T. (2013). Novel three-step pseudo-absence selection technique for improved species distribution modelling. PLoS ONE, 8, e71218. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0071218
Stuart, S. N., Chanson, J. S., Cox, N. A., Young, B. E., Rodrigues, A. S., Fischman, D. L., & Waller, R. W. (2004). Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide. Science, 306, 1783–1786. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1103538
Thomas, C. D., Cameron, A., Green, R. E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L. J., Collingham, Y. C., … Hannah, L. (2004). Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145–148. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121
Thuiller, W., Lafourcade, B., Engler, R., & Araújo, M. B. (2009). BIOMOD–A platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography, 32, 369–373. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x
Thuiller, W., Georges, D., Engler, R., & Breiner, F. (2016). biomod2: Ensemble platform for species distribution modeling (R package version 3). https://cran.r-project.org/package=biomod2
Vamberger, M., Stuckas, H., Ayaz, D., Graciá, E., Aloufi, A. A., Els, J., … Fritz, U. (2013). Conservation genetics and phylogeography of the poorly known Middle Eastern terrapin Mauremys caspica (Testudines: Geoemydidae). Organisms Diversity & Evolution, 13, 77–85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13127-012-0120-8
Vamberger, M., Stuckas, H., Vargas-Ramírez, M., Kehlmaier, C., Ayaz, D., Aloufi, A. A., … Fritz, U. (2017). Unexpected hybridization patterns in Near Eastern terrapins (Mauremys caspica, M. rivulata) indicate ancient gene flow across the Fertile Crescent. Zoologica Scripta, 46, 401–413. https://doi.org/10.1111/zsc.12215
van Dijk, P. P., Iverson, J., Rhodin, A., Shaffer, H. B., & Bour, R. (2014). Turtles of the world: Annotated checklist of taxonomy, synonymy, distribution with maps, and conservation status. Chelonian Research Monographs, 5, 329–479. https://doi.org/10.3854/crm.5.000.checklist.v5.2014
Yadollahvand, R., & Kami, H. G. (2014). Habitat changes and its impacts on the Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica) population in the Golestan and Mazandaran provinces of Iran. Journal of Aquaculture Research & Development, 5, 2–3. https://doi.org/10.4172/2155-9546.1000242
Yadollahvand, R., Kami, H. G., Mashroofeh, A., & Bakhtiari, A. R. (2014). Assessment of trace elements concentrations in tissues in Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica) from Golestan Province, Iran. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, 101, 191–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2013.12.009
Yousefi, M., Ahmadi, M., Nourani, E., Rezaei, A., Kafash, A., Khani, A., … Kaboli, M. (2017). Habitat suitability and impacts of climate change on the distribution of wintering population of Asian Houbara Bustard (Chlamydotis macqueenii) in Iran. Bird Conservation International, 27, 294–304. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0959270916000248
Zhang, K., Yao, L., Meng, J., & Tao, J. (2018). Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change. Science of the Total Environment, 634, 1326–1334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.089
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Wildlife and Biodiversity
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
JWB applies the 