Biodiversity loss and the emergence of novel infectious diseases: a global meta-analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20237229Keywords:
Biodiversity loss, emerging infectious diseases, meta-analysis, dilution effect, zoonotic spillover, One HealthAbstract
The ongoing global biodiversity crisis has been hypothesized to increase the risk of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), yet the direction and magnitude of this relationship remain debated. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 245 studies published between 1990 and 2024, encompassing 1,286 effect sizes, to quantify the association between biodiversity loss and disease risk using a multilevel random-effects model. Biodiversity loss was significantly associated with increased disease risk (SMD = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.31–0.53, p < 0.001, I² = 78.6%), with the strongest effects observed for vector-borne diseases (SMD = 0.67) and directly transmitted zoonoses (SMD = 0.39). Dilution effects were documented for Lyme disease, West Nile virus, and hantavirus, while amplification effects occurred for certain fungal and parasitic infections. Habitat fragmentation and land-use change significantly exacerbated disease risk, whereas latitude and publication year showed no moderating influence. These findings support the dilution effect hypothesis and indicate that biodiversity conservation should be integrated into pandemic prevention and One Health strategies.References
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