Future range dynamics of the Egyptian mongoose, Herpestes ichneumon Linnaeus, 1758 (Carnivora: Herpestidae), with notes on its distribution in Türkiye
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23303378Keywords:
Egyptian Mongoose, ecological niche modelling, distribution records, climate change, range dynamics, Middle East, TürkiyeAbstract
The Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon Linnaeus, 1758) is a small, widely distributed carnivore found across sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Middle East, as well as in isolated peripheral ranges in Türkiye and the Iberian Peninsula. This study used ecological niche modeling with MaxEnt to explore the present and future habitat suitability of H. ichneumon under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, and for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100). The best-performing model, with an AUC of 0.978, indicated that the critical environmental parameters influencing habitat availability were wettest-month precipitation, mean diurnal temperature range, and isothermality, reflecting the species' preference for riparian scrub, moist lowlands, and warm but thermally stable conditions. Present-day distribution patterns closely align with established ranges in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. However, Turkish populations occur at the northernmost extent of the distribution, confined to lowland areas along the Mediterranean and the southern coast, including the provinces of Adana, Hatay, Mersin, and Osmaniye in southern Türkiye. Range projections indicate a marked increase across the species' overall range (up to +33.9% by 2100 under SSP3-7.0) but a potential decline in Türkiye (−27.2% by 2100 under SSP5-8.5), with losses concentrated in Central and Western Anatolia. This makes southern Türkiye a bioclimatic refuge region. The Egyptian mongoose demonstrates broad ecological adaptability and biogeographic resilience across its core range in Africa. However, populations at the northern margin (including those in Türkiye) appear to be constrained by climatic and spatial factors. In Türkiye, late-century contractions under higher-emission pathways suggest that persistence will depend on humid lowland microrefugia and the continuity of riparian–scrub mosaics. Therefore, maintaining river-corridor connectivity and implementing standardized long-term monitoring should be prioritized.
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