Fauna–Vegetation correlations and relative abundance in a fragmented landscape of Southwest Mexico: Pre- and Post-COVID-19 analysis

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic altered human mobility and natural-resource management, potentially affecting wildlife in rural landscapes where conservation and livestock production coexist. This work evaluated temporal variation in mammal detections in the Bienes Comunales Santa Cruz Nuevo Wildlife Management Unit, Puebla, Mexico, using camera-trap data from two pre-pandemic surveys (2018 and 2019) and a post-restriction survey (2022). Sampling comprised 39 station-years and 3,193.31 effective camera-days. The work compared encounter rates, station-level occurrence, and observed and estimated species richness among years, and also examined associations between wild mammals, domestic animals, human activity, altitude, and vegetation attributes. Species richness varied substantially among years: 14 species were recorded in 2018, nine in 2019, and 11 in 2022. Chao2 estimates and station-based rarefaction supported this interannual variability rather than a consistent directional change. Gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) detections declined significantly during the post-restriction survey relative to the pre-pandemic baseline (rate ratio = 0.280, 95% CI = 0.129–0.604, FDR-adjusted q = 0.025). Other species showed uncertain or non-estimable temporal effects because of sparse detections or complete zeros. Raccoon detections were negatively associated with altitude, whereas gray fox and coyote detections were associated with livestock occurrence. These findings demonstrate species-specific temporal responses and emphasize that nondetection or nonsignificant results do not necessarily indicate ecological stability. Although the observed changes coincided with the COVID-19 period, they cannot be attributed exclusively to pandemic restrictions because the year also represented climatic, ecological, and management variation.